Too much and too little rain: food insecurity among displaced and host communities in South Sudan

Food insecurity is a chronic problem in South Sudan, and the situation has worsened in recent years despite the multifaceted approaches and investments by various actors. Agriculture, food security and livelihoods are the most sensitive to climate change, yet these sectors are the least prepared to absorb the shocks. The World Food Programme (WFP) estimated that 7 out of 10 people in South Sudan were food insecure in August 2023. The food insecurity is exacerbated by climate change and conflict that have curtailed people’s efforts to feed themselves.

Annual flooding has been witnessed in South Sudan since 2019. The Greater Upper Nile region of South Sudan is the most adversely affected by annual flooding, and is the area with the highest levels of food insecurity. Bentiu, the capital of Unity State, has lately become an island courtesy of floodwaters. As of September 2023, more than 95% of the landmass in Unity State was under water, and flooding has displaced 120,000 people. The predicted El Niño phenomenon across East Africa has increased rainfall across the Lake Victoria basin, and this is expected to increase flooding in South Sudan. It is particularly important for aid workers and policymakers to understand the impact of flooding events on food security, especially for regions in South Sudan which grapple with the triple burden of conflict, climate change and food insecurity, so that they can design appropriate interventions that alleviate human suffering.

This article analyses the experiences of 120 households who were part of various food security and livelihood interventions in the Leer and Mayendit counties. The overarching project sought to increase agricultural productivity and food production through distribution of agricultural inputs, training on agronomic practices and provision of extension support services. A questionnaire was administered to some of the project participants to ascertain the extent to which their food security situation has been impacted by conflict, flooding and drought.

Effects of climate change

The majority of the population in South Sudan (87%) depends on agriculture, livestock and forestry. One would expect South Sudan food insecurity to be driven by conflict, but this is not the case. Besides the protracted conflict, which has destabilised livelihoods for more than a decade, climate change has also impacted households negatively. Climate change is a greater cause of food insecurity than conflict, but conflict is still a factor. Coalition for Humanity (CH) has implemented various interventions in Mayendit County since 2020. The projects – ranging from crop and supplies distribution, climate change-related updates, and cash distribution – have achieved only short-term outcomes with minimal lasting solutions to the food insecurity situation. As part of project monitoring and evaluation, CH has made an effort to understand the factors influencing the food security situation in Leer and Mayendit counties.

Climate change remains a factor that cannot be ignored if humanitarian interventions are to have a lasting impact and the Sustainable Development Goals are to be met. Out of the surveyed households in Mayendit County, 71% were host communities, 19% were internally displaced, and 10% were returnees. The majority of the internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Mayendit (62%) were displaced due to floods, while in Leer 35% were affected by floods. Leer County had a higher number of returnees and IDPs due to conflict (63%), with only 35% displaced due to flooding. Households face multiple displacements; a conflict-affected IDP or returnee can be displaced again due to floods.

Dependence on humanitarian support

The once self-reliant community has been made dependent due to climate change. As with South Sudan in general, Mayendit and Leer counties primarily engaged in agropastoralist livelihoods. A 2020 survey in Mayendit therefore revealed that only around 4% of people relied on remittances from friends and family, and around 10% on non-governmental organisation (NGO) financial support. But the households that were recovering from political conflict, communal conflict, cattle raiding and revenge killings became victims of climate change and were not able to adequately cope with the multiple shocks. Food insecurity led people to resort to water lilies as an alternative (and insufficient) food source, compounded by the lack of roads to connect to the main markets.

Water levels have remained high since 2019. Flooding continually affects South Sudan, and the number of households depending on NGOs/humanitarian support has continued to increase. The last time such a magnitude of flooding was reported in South Sudan was in 2016. By October 2023, 21% of households surveyed in Mayendit and 40% of those in Leer County depended mainly on humanitarian support; most of the livelihoods had deteriorated over time, despite efforts to support households with crop kits, fishing kits and other inputs. Crops were swept away before harvest, with 96% of the respondents in Leer and 58% from Mayendit reporting that they had lost crops due to climate change. Humanitarian organisations supported the provision and maintenance of livestock, but such animals drowned during flooding or died due to drought. In Mayendit, 55% had lost animals due to climate change, while in Leer it was 92% of the households.

The ability to produce food was also affected by people having to move to new locations where there was no arable land, and roads were cut off so trading was impossible. Only humanitarian partners could airlift food in. This has led to food insecurity among households that depended majorly on agropastoralism and crop production as a source of income.

Despite the humanitarian support, many households did not receive climate-related updates on time, or, as a further example, funding cycles resulted in delays to farm essentials being supplied. The delays in seed and input distribution led to delayed cultivation, households missed the main season, and the floods ruined the unharvested crops. All of the surveyed households in Mayendit had lost some crops (groundnuts, vegetables such as okra, and/or millet); likewise, 100% of surveyed households in Leer had lost some crops (cowpeas, vegetables, beans and groundnuts).

Households expressed their need for climate updates; they wanted to be informed in advance on when to expect rainfall and the amount of rainfall so that they could plan adequately. The households felt that some of the climate and weather information was not useful due to delays, with disasters having already occurred. Households wanted such updates translated into local languages. Unfortunately, the cascading of climate and weather information was also subject to humanitarian project cycles, with updates being brought to an end as projects also came to a close. The lack of sustainable structures for climate information sharing remains a barrier to early warning of and early response to climate-related disasters, so households in fragile states are not able to adequately prepare for disaster.

The irony of drought in a flood-affected county

South Sudan experiences two seasons: one with significant rainfall, and a dry season with much less rainfall. Due to climate change, the seasons have become unpredictable. Sometimes the River Nile swells due to rains in neighbouring counties and the tributaries overflow, displacing households. Affected people might move to higher ground, but the drought in these areas destroys the few crops and the few remaining animals die due to lack of pasture.

One would expect households in Leer and Mayendit to primarily attribute the food insecurity to conflict and drought, but this is not the case. Around 40% of households have attributed the food insecurity to drought while 17% cited flooding. A symptom of flooding and drought is an increase in pests and diseases – affecting both livestock and crops – so 26% of people mentioned these in relation to food insecurity. Despite the widely known political and communal conflicts, analysis indicated these are irrelevant to the current food insecurity situation. This could be because the country has experienced relative calm since the last major political conflict erupted and that communal disruptions like cattle raiding and revenge killings happen on a small scale, affecting few families and not lasting for significant time periods.

But why does drought seemingly lead to greater food insecurity than flooding? Aside from the negative impacts, rainfall is also likely to increase the availability of pasture and water for animals and crop cultivation, hence not worsening the food insecurity situation in the same way as drought. Also, a good number of households depend on fishing along the River Nile tributaries; during flooding, fish swim into the flood waters to household level, increasing access to fish as food.

Conclusion

Since flooding and drought protracts displacement, their effect on food insecurity is much greater than conflict. Thus, the effects of climate change cannot be ignored as we plan humanitarian response. What seemed to be a protracted humanitarian crisis of flood response has now become a development challenge. There is increasing need for humanitarian–development–peace nexus action, with climate change as a cross-cutting theme in addressing food insecurity. Contextualised responses addressing floods, drought, conflict, pests and diseases could see households improve their food security status. Integrated long-term projects that are multifaceted could be beneficial for Leer and Mayendit counties to provide long-term solutions to flooding, or adopt flood-/drought-resilient food production and access measures. Additionally, there is a need to institutionalise climate information sharing, and move away from a reliance on humanitarian programmes for this, with proper channels that can reach households with accurate information in a timely manner. Failure to do so has hampered early warning of and early response to floods in South Sudan. Efforts to address the root causes of flooding as well as to come up with flood risk mitigation can help humanitarian and development projects have a lasting impact. Flood disaster mapping of higher grounds and the sharing of alternative flood-resilient agricultural crops and practices could see an improvement in food security and livelihood.

Dr Hilda Muteshi is Director of Programmes and Business Development at Coalition for Humanity.

Laban Ashioya Etindi is Programme Director at Tearfund, South Sudan.