Climate change, conflict and displacement: perspectives from Afghanistan

Amidst the ongoing conflict and displacement crisis in Afghanistan, the impact of climate change has intensified, creating a complex web of challenges. As Deputy Director of the Citizens Organisation for Advocacy and Resilience (COAR), I aim to illuminate the current situation, examining the intersection of climate change, conflict and displacement. Drawing on recent data, including insights from the Humanitarian Response Plan and a stakeholder survey on climate change in Afghanistan, this article offers a concise and informative overview of the multifaceted challenges faced by affected communities, setting the stage for more in-depth exploration.

Rising temperatures and erratic weather patterns compound resource scarcity, particularly affecting conflict-affected areas. The stakeholder survey, involving interviews with local communities, environmental experts and government officials, provides detailed insights into these intricate dynamics. The Humanitarian Response Plan emphasises the vulnerability of displaced populations to climate-related hazards, underscoring the need for targeted interventions.

By examining these findings, we gain a nuanced understanding of how climate-induced factors intersect with conflict dynamics, influencing displacement patterns.

The impact of climate change: navigating the complex terrain

Climate change, a significant driver of displacement in Afghanistan, is underscored in the recent Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) and findings from the stakeholder survey. The effects of climate change, including rising temperatures, irregular precipitation and prolonged droughts, are outlined in both sources. These impacts have devastating effects, severely affecting agriculture, worsening food insecurity and triggering widespread migration.

In 2023, it is estimated that there will be around 1.1 million cross-border returnees, with the majority returning from Iran and the remainder from Pakistan, highlighting the multifaceted nature of these population movements. While climate undoubtedly plays a role in these returns, it is crucial to acknowledge the broader political context. The forced expulsions of Afghan refugees in Pakistan are undeniably playing a significant role in shaping migration patterns. These returnees are predominantly settling in border provinces or returning to their original provinces of residence, if they have home or land there. The involuntary nature of this displacement, driven by political decisions, adds a layer of complexity to the challenges faced by individuals and families returning to Afghanistan.

Displacement is particularly pronounced in regions heavily affected by drought, such as Nimroz, Zabul, Oruzgan, Farah, Badakhshan and Faryab. Individuals and families from these areas are relocating to neighbouring provinces or migrating to neighbouring countries.

Understanding the dynamics of this migration is crucial for determining whether it is temporary or permanent. Tailoring response measures to address the unique needs of affected populations hinges on this understanding. Additionally, this migration trend raises concerns about heightened protection risks, especially for vulnerable groups such as women and girls. The influx of returnees into new areas necessitates a comprehensive approach to ensure the wellbeing and safety of those affected by climate-induced displacement.

Conflict amplification: unravelling the complex nexus

In the complex web of challenges that Afghanistan faces, the interplay between climate change, conflict, and recent sanctions in light of the Taliban takeover has given rise to a perilous feedback loop. Scarce resources, notably water and land, have become increasingly contested, leading to heightened tensions and violent clashes among different groups within communities. Adam Pain’s work on ‘Land, power and conflict in Afghanistan’ can be referred to here: it explains how these community clashes reflect how power dynamics, exacerbated by the last three decades of instability, have intertwined with geographical and social dimensions. The distinctions between mountainous regions and plains, between subsistence-based economies and intensive irrigated lands, have historically laid the groundwork for structural inequalities and disputes over resource distribution.

The observation on the ‘breakdown of customary water distribution practices’ aligns seamlessly with our exploration of the impact of climate change on water resources. Irregular precipitation patterns and prolonged droughts intensify conflicts over dwindling water resources. The downstream villages’ accusations against upstream communities for over-extracting water form a critical link to our exploration of resource conflicts influenced by changing climatic conditions. It is one example of the many complex layers of conflict amplification.

Moreover, there is an ethnic dimension to these conflicts over resources; different communities, historically settled in diverse geographic settings, now all vie for access to water. Ethnic complexities undoubtedly exacerbate conflicts, particularly when communities used to living on irrigated land clash with those relying on subsistence-based economies.

Therefore, understanding the multifaceted layers of conflict amplification, fuelled by climate change impacts on resource availability, is crucial. Pain’s article provides a rich context for our discussion, emphasising the need for a holistic approach that addresses immediate clashes over resources and underlying environmental vulnerabilities. Effectively navigating the complex terrain of climate-induced conflict in Afghanistan necessitates a thorough understanding of local perspectives, as underscored by insights gathered from relevant analyses.

Adaptation and resilience: the role of local initiatives

In the face of Afghanistan’s many challenges, local communities and grassroots organisations have stepped up as leaders in dealing with climate change. The stakeholder survey report emphasises the essential role of community-led efforts in creating lasting solutions, like effective water management, crops that can handle droughts, and renewable energy projects.

These local efforts are happening while non-governmental organisations (NGOs) in Afghanistan are working hard to learn and share scientific knowledge, even though advocacy groups and NGOs face difficulties due to limited resources and the ongoing violence. In particular, the ban on women humanitarian workers intensifies the critical nature of humanitarian response efforts. This ban has heightened the urgency to target women-headed families in surveys, ensuring the identification of their specific needs and vulnerabilities. The humanitarian community recognises the increased significance of tailoring responses to address the unique challenges faced by women in the aftermath of such restrictive measures. Despite these challenges, these NGOs continue to collect data and recommend programmes, with findings that are readily accepted by the communities and individuals who stand to benefit from interventions. Their determination to learn and share knowledge, even in tough situations, shows how committed they are.

There’s also a noticeable change in how people talk about climate change in Afghanistan. More and more, people are realising how important local knowledge is. This isn’t just about saying local knowledge matters; it’s about actually using what local people know alongside what scientists know. This mix of different knowledge helps in dealing with disasters and talking about climate change. It’s like putting together pieces of a puzzle, using both what people in Afghanistan know from their own experiences and what scientists know from their studies.

Recent reports, including those from the HRP, stakeholder surveys, and research reports on climate change in Afghanistan, show that international groups are starting to see the value of what local people are doing. They’re giving support and resources to help these local efforts grow. The voices of local NGOs in climate change issues adds to this story, talking about how local NGOs in Afghanistan are crucial in dealing with the effects of climate change in their communities.

Humanitarian response: navigating challenges and building bridges

The humanitarian response to the challenges posed by climate change and conflict-induced displacement in Afghanistan has been intricate. The HRP for 2023 outlines the need for improved coordination and integration of climate change adaptation strategies into humanitarian interventions. It also emphasises the necessity of addressing the specific needs and vulnerabilities of displaced populations, including access to basic services, shelter and livelihood opportunities.

However, it’s crucial to note that the planning process for the HRP faced unexpected obstacles. The 2023 Afghanistan Humanitarian Response Plan was formulated between August and December 2022, with the intent of publishing it in January 2023. Unfortunately, on 24 December 2022, the de facto authorities issued a decree barring Afghan women from working for NGOs. This led to a month-long partial operational pause of non-time-critical humanitarian programmes.

Despite these challenges, efforts were made to move from an ‘operational pause’ to an ‘operational trial’ period, supported by a related concept of operations. The HRP for 2023 was still issued based on the initial planning, but references to the ban and changes in the context were also included.

The ban on women’s participation in humanitarian response is expected to have profound and enduring consequences, especially for women and girls, who are already among the most vulnerable members of society. The reduction in the workforce due to the ban significantly hampers the ability to deliver assistance and services directly to women in need. Moreover, it undermines the qualitative components of the response, including safeguarding, meaningful engagement, and quality assurance, as the exclusion of women from humanitarian efforts limits the diversity of perspectives and skills necessary for a comprehensive and effective response.

The humanitarian community, including the Humanitarian Country Team, is actively engaging with other partners and basic-human-needs actors. They have developed a monitoring and reporting framework to assess the impact of the ban on access, sectoral and local authorisations, and the ability of humanitarian partners to operate within the recommended criteria. Ongoing assessments are being conducted to understand the ban’s impact across all sectors, and advocacy efforts are in progress to engage with the authorities and overturn the ban. Based on monitoring outcomes and advocacy efforts, a comprehensive review of the operation and a revision of the HRP will be conducted as necessary.

Conclusion

The current state in Afghanistan underscores the pressing need for concerted action at the convergence of climate change, conflict and displacement. International actors must adopt inclusive and sustainable approaches that prioritise the voices and experiences of local actors. This call is not just for abstract collaboration, innovation and advocacy, but for a nuanced and practical roadmap for effective and comprehensive responses addressing the complex impacts of climate change in conflict-affected regions. What could this look like?

1. Collaboration: Actively engaging with local communities, NGOs and international partners to foster meaningful partnerships. This means establishing channels for ongoing dialogue, joint planning and shared decision-making in climate change initiatives.
2. Innovation: Encouraging and investing in innovative solutions that address the unique challenges posed by the intersection of climate change, conflict and displacement. This could involve technology-driven solutions, community-driven initiatives, and adaptive strategies tailored to the specific needs of affected regions.
3. Advocacy: Advocating for policy changes at both national and international levels to integrate climate considerations into conflict-resolution strategies. This involves leveraging the findings from stakeholder surveys and research reports to influence decision-makers and shape policies that prioritise the wellbeing of affected communities.

In practice, sustaining collaboration implies ongoing partnerships with local NGOs, communities and international entities. Innovation involves supporting and scaling up successful local initiatives, while advocacy requires active engagement with policymakers and stakeholders to influence policy changes that address the intricacies of climate-induced conflicts in Afghanistan.

Sameera Noori is Deputy Director at the Citizens Organisation for Advocacy and Resilience.