Table 1: Probability of an event exceeding a given magnitude. For each forecast period, n days (leftmost column), the top row gives the magnitude (M), the second gives the best estimate of the probability (p) that an event of that size will happen in this time, and the third gives a worst case estimate which includes an estimate of the uncertainty in the modelling and the data. This table can be calculated automatically in near-real-time as the sequence unfolds.