Conflict-sensitive aid at the intersection of climate change, conflict and vulnerability in South Sudan

South Sudan, already grappling with political instability and the consequences of decades of conflict, is one of the countries most vulnerable to the effects of climate change in Africa. This interaction of combined shocks and stressors amidst prolonged insecurity and fragility is likely to continue to have devastating consequences, exacerbating chronic humanitarian needs, disrupting livelihoods, and hampering development efforts.

In Greater Upper Nile, one of three regions making up South Sudan, a significant portion of the population has been uprooted and economic assets such as livestock and agricultural land have been lost due to a combination of flooding and conflict. This unprecedented loss of livelihood assets has led to increased competition for resources amidst elevated tensions over land, water and grazing areas. In Greater Equatoria, incidents of deadly conflict have been frequent, particularly between cattle keepers and farmers, while communities in some areas have also experienced increased pressure due to more frequent droughts. Similar dynamics have also played out in Greater Bahr el-Ghazal. Communities experience such climatic shocks and variability in a context of long-term instability following decades of violent conflict. Despite the 2018 peace agreement, the country’s vulnerable social fabric, marked by ethnic divisions and longstanding grievances, further amplifies the prevalence of violent conflict.

Conflict and climatic factors intersect in complex ways to influence a fluid map of forced and multiple displacement, disrupted seasonal transhumance, and economic migration. Efforts to support longer-term and sustainable solutions are undermined by long-term fragility and instability. This article will focus on recent research, which examined often overlooked community perceptions and what this means for the aid sector in terms of ensuring a conflict-sensitive approach to these compounding factors.

Insights from community perceptions

Recent research by the Conflict Sensitivity Resource Facility (CSRF) focused on community perceptions of climate change patterns and trends, perceptions of how climate and conflict interact, and perceptions of aid within that framing. The research centred on two case study locations – Kapoeta in Eastern Equatoria state and the Mangala-Bor corridor, between Jonglei and Central Equatoria states. It aimed to identify and reflect perspectives of South Sudanese communities affected by both climate change and conflict, and their interaction with the aid system.

In Kapoeta, communities reported experiencing increased dry periods and droughts, resulting in the loss of pastureland and crop failures. These changes in climatic conditions have led pastoralists to alter migration patterns, encroaching on land traditionally belonging to other ethnic communities, or bringing their migration routes towards those of other pastoralist groups and leading to increased tensions due to greater pressure on resources. One resident of Kapoeta North County referred to how they migrate to other communities with their livestock in search of water and pasture, saying ‘you go to them with peace in your right hand and a gun in your left’, indicating that if the community cannot allow peaceful sharing of water and pastures then it can be acquired forcefully.

Tensions were more likely to flare up in communities that already had pre-existing grievances, while where communities had a history of community coexistence and existing ties or relationships, changes in migration patterns and displacement were much less likely to result in conflict. For example, the Toposa people of Kapoeta North County peacefully share their water and pasture resources with the Jie community migrating from the Greater Pibor Administrative Area; the same community of Toposa are less able to peacefully share resources with the neighbouring Buya community from Budi County, due to a long history of grievances. Even in areas where there was a history of tension, the risk of conflict had in some cases been mitigated by community-led dialogue processes or coordination groups, which resulted in peaceful agreements on shared access to resources or temporary allocation of land for internally displaced persons (IDPs) based on collective decision-making.

In the Mangala-Bor corridor, flooding has undermined existing coping strategies and resulted in displacement and increased pressure on IDP camps. This displacement, coupled with ongoing insecurity, has forced pastoralists to change their migration patterns, leading to conflict with farmers who see the arrival of cattle camps as a threat to their livelihoods. Communities living in the corridor have been subjected to repeated and severe climatic shocks in recent years. Each wave of flooding has resulted in large-scale displacement, as well as altered seasonal migration patterns for pastoralist communities. In several instances, flooding has coincided with intense periods of political violence. As one research respondent said:

‘The number one thing that displaced us is flooding. It destroyed everything: cow, goat, crop, food, shelter and other non-food items. What keeps us here is conflict. Our place is dry now, but we cannot go back because of conflict.’

The research also reinforced the idea that the intersection of climate change, conflict and displacement in South Sudan is profoundly gendered. As primary providers of food and water, and with fewer alternative livelihood options when displaced due to generally lower literacy rates and social and economic standing, women are particularly vulnerable to the increasing scarcity of potable water and food. In some instances, they are forced to engage in risky activities, such as travelling further to access water, and selling alcohol. These activities expose them to sexual and gender-based violence. At the same time, the intersection affects men and boys: masculinity may be linked to cattle herding, and men and boys face a greater risk of being forced or coerced into other forms of organised violence.

Perceptions of aid in the research locations illustrate that aid actors face a range of complex conflict-sensitivity challenges. The perceived role of aid agencies in the permanent resettlement of IDPs in some areas, especially in areas where there are existing tensions, has led to frustration. Others lamented what they see as an inadequate and poorly targeted response. Aid actors are under increasing pressure with fewer resources, and the effects of climate change have further heightened this complexity. There were very limited capacities or expertise to support integrated climate and conflict-sensitive action.
When it comes to coping and adaptation strategies, communities in South Sudan still practise traditional early-warning approaches based on bird signs, star observation and wind direction. These systems are limited, but they provide the best guess for the community as to whether there will be drought or flood this year. South Sudan currently has five manual weather stations but only two of these are functional, making it the East African country with the least number of weather stations. The capacity of the South Sudan Meteorological Department to provide weather forecasting and climate modelling remains very limited. The government of South Sudan is currently working with the United Nations Development Programme to establish a Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS) to be able to provide weather forecasting and climate modelling, and to use earth observation and geospatial data to predict climate vulnerability, migration trends and conflict risks. This system will also map conflict hotspots along migratory routes and provide conflict early warning to enable communities, government and peace partners to prevent conflict.

Working more effectively at the intersection of climate change, conflict and displacement

Investing in learning around good practice and a better understanding of the interactions at the intersection between climate change, conflict and displacement offer several entry points for those in the aid sector and other relevant areas of expertise to work more effectively in the following ways.

1) Centre the design of responses and strategies around communities

Working at this nexus offers new opportunities to adapt to the changing context and to evolve to meet the changing needs of affected populations. Centring local knowledge is key to doing this well, particularly given the fusion of customary and modern systems in South Sudan.

How aid is perceived and accessed also has an important bearing, and directly impacts the effectiveness of interventions. For example, one resident in Bor said ‘the community is responding to the needs of the donors’, which implies a worrying disconnect between what the community wants and what aid projects prioritise. Such perceptions have profound implications for the ownership and sustainability of aid outcomes. Aid actors must critically examine and reshape their strategies to ensure that assistance is contextually relevant and co-designed with communities to ensure their ownership. For example, this may include identifying or supporting existing, locally accepted mechanisms to negotiate shared access to natural resources.

2) Prioritise and invest in approaches and changes to systems that enable better and more cross-silo collaboration

The value of more integrated approaches towards common objectives has long been appreciated, recognising that intersecting challenges can only be addressed by intersecting solutions. For example, interest in the ‘humanitarian–development–peace nexus’ builds on previous efforts (including many specific to South Sudan) to encourage greater connectedness, and these offer useful lessons on how to include a strong focus on climate resilience and adaptation.

However, efforts to collaborate or coordinate in South Sudan have often been hindered by inter-institutional politics or an assumption that areas, such as peace or climate, are outside of one’s mandate. Specific areas of expertise and clarity of mandates are important; however, this should not be a barrier to collaboration. More collaborative approaches could help those with more relevant expertise apply a peace lens to existing climate resilience approaches and humanitarian responses to displacement, and to ensure that durable solutions to displacement crises are recognised and addressed.

3) Invest in early warning and anticipatory action that integrates climate, environment and conflict and supports longer-term solutions

In order to enhance communities’ resilience and adaptation to the impact of climate change, South Sudan’s ability to forecast and predict climate impact needs to be strengthened to provide timely climate information to farmers. Establishing and strengthening multi-hazard early warning systems (including conflict indicators) can provide an essential tool for anticipating and proactively responding to intersecting risks. Development partners and government institutions need to pool their resources and expertise to enable the operationalisation, functioning and effective downscaling of early-warning information to communities in accordance with the United Nation Secretary-General’s Early Warning for All agenda. Early-warning systems should build on existing local climate prediction practice and tailor how early-warning information is shared accordingly, considering how local practice informs decisions, and harmonising with traditional climate information sharing channels. Early-warning systems are most effective when wider contextual analysis and meaningful community engagement are integrated throughout.

Anticipatory action can play an important role in protecting people’s lives, livelihoods and wellbeing, though this need to be designed for specific conflict contexts (for example, an Anticipatory Action in Conflict Practitioners Group brings together practitioners to better understand how it can be designed and implemented effectively in situations of conflict). Conflict-sensitive anticipatory action must support long-term solutions that address underlying causes of conflict and vulnerability, while also shoring up the capacity of communities to build resilience to the effects of climate change and conflict.

4) Ensure conflict-sensitive climate change adaptation

Climate change adaptation strategies must be conflict sensitive, for example by ensuring that the construction of dykes and other types of flood-management infrastructure accounts for the potential impact on migration routes, or integrating conflict-management systems into water, sanitation and hygiene projects such as boreholes, haffirs and dams, or ensuring that climate-resilient infrastructure such as flood- or drought-resilient crops and water-supply systems are designed for specific contexts. Applying a peace lens can also enable such interventions to further contribute to peace and a more sustainable approach to adaptation and mitigation, including by promoting sustainable resource management and fostering dialogue among conflicting parties, and informing sustainable responses. Aid actors will need to consider how they collaborate with local governance structures – particularly in relation to strengthening local resource management institutions, fostering collaborative approaches to adaptation and mitigation, and improving accountability mechanisms. By integrating conflict sensitivity into climate change adaptation initiatives, aid actors can contribute to lasting peace and resilience.

Kuach Pech is an International Development expert with focus on climate change, early warning system, and anticipatory action; he is currently affiliated to the South Sudan Ministry of Environment and Forestry and United Nations Development Programme.

Natalia Chan is a Senior Conflict and Security Adviser in Saferworld’s Conflict Advisory Unit and works closely with the Conflict Sensitivity Resource Facility in South Sudan.