Exploring resilience strategies in the Lake Chad Basin amid climate change, natural disasters and conflict

The Lake Chad Basin region, encompassing Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon, is grappling with the compounding challenges of climate change, environmental degradation and ongoing conflict. These interlinked stressors significantly affect local communities, increasing their vulnerability to both environmental and sociopolitical upheavals. Climate-induced hazards such as droughts, floods and desertification have strained already scarce resources, leading to intensified competition and inter-communal tensions. Meanwhile, the region’s persistent conflict hinders efforts to adapt to these challenges, disrupting both local livelihoods and broader resilience-building initiatives. Despite these challenges, local communities, governments and humanitarian actors have implemented resilience strategies, emphasising community-driven solutions, inclusive governance, and cross-border collaboration. Addressing the root causes of climate change, promoting conflict-sensitive adaptation, and enhancing regional cooperation are essential for fostering sustainable development in the region. This complex situation underscores the need for integrated policy frameworks that account for the interconnected nature of climate change, natural disasters and conflict in the Lake Chad Basin.

Climate change impacts

Climate change has profound impacts on the Lake Chad Basin region, exacerbating environmental degradation, water scarcity and agricultural challenges. One notable impact is the shrinking of Lake Chad itself, which has experienced a drastic reduction in size over the past few decades due to a combination of reduced rainfall, increased temperatures, and unsustainable water management practices. Lake Chad has lost approximately 90% of its water volume since the 1960s (a phenomenon that has been captured by NASA’s images), negatively impacting local ecosystems, fisheries and livelihoods dependent on the lake’s resources.

Moreover, rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns associated with climate change pose significant challenges for water resource management and sustainable agriculture in the region. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports that increasing temperatures and erratic rainfall patterns have led to decreased water availability and increased evapotranspiration rates, affecting the viability of traditional farming practices and exacerbating water stress in already water-scarce areas like the Lake Chad Basin.

Furthermore, climate change contributes to the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in the region, including droughts and floods. These events have devastating consequences for agricultural productivity, food security and water availability, exacerbating poverty and vulnerability among local communities. For example, in Nigeria, recurrent droughts in the Lake Chad Basin region have led to crop failures, livestock losses and widespread food insecurity, pushing many households into poverty and dependency on humanitarian aid.

Natural hazard disasters and vulnerability

Natural hazard disasters pose significant threats to the Lake Chad Basin region, exacerbating vulnerability and socioeconomic disparities among local communities. One of the primary natural disasters affecting the region is drought, which has become increasingly frequent and severe due to climate change and erratic rainfall patterns. Droughts have devastating consequences for agriculture, water availability and food security, leading to crop failures, livestock losses and widespread hunger. For instance, the prolonged drought in the Lake Chad Basin has resulted in reduced agricultural productivity, increased food insecurity, and loss of livelihoods for millions of people dependent on agriculture and pastoralism.

Floods are another significant natural disaster, particularly during the rainy season. Floods cause displacement, destruction of infrastructure, and contamination of water sources, posing health risks and exacerbating vulnerability among affected populations. In 2019, heavy rainfall and flooding in Nigeria displaced over 130,000 people in the northeastern states, including Adamawa, Borno and Yobe, exacerbating humanitarian needs and straining already limited resources.

Moreover, desertification and land degradation are ongoing processes in the Lake Chad Basin region, driven by a combination of climate change, deforestation, and unsustainable land management practices. Desertification reduces the availability of arable land, degrades soil fertility, and undermines agricultural productivity, exacerbating poverty and food insecurity among rural communities. The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) estimates that desertification has affected approximately 30 million people and since the 1960s, the lake has shrunk by 90% due to climate change and overuse of resources.

Conflict dynamics

Conflict dynamics in the Lake Chad Basin region are complex and multifaceted, driven by a combination of factors including competition over scarce resources, ethnic tensions and the presence of armed extremist groups. One of the primary drivers of conflict is competition over dwindling water resources, exacerbated by climate change-induced desertification and the shrinking of Lake Chad. This competition often leads to tensions between farmers and herders, as well as between different ethnic and religious groups dependent on the same resources for their livelihoods. For example, clashes between herders from different ethnic groups and farmers over access to water and grazing land have been reported in various parts of the Lake Chad Basin, leading to violence and displacement.

Additionally, the presence of armed extremist groups such as Boko Haram further complicates the conflict dynamics in the region. Boko Haram, which initially emerged in northeastern Nigeria, has expanded its activities across the Lake Chad Basin, carrying out attacks on civilian populations, government institutions and security forces. The group’s insurgency has led to widespread insecurity, displacement and humanitarian crises, exacerbating existing tensions and fuelling intercommunal conflicts. The Global Terrorism Index highlights the devastating impact of Boko Haram’s activities on the Lake Chad Basin region, with thousands of people killed, abducted, or displaced as a result of the conflict.

Moreover, political and governance challenges contribute to the perpetuation of conflict in the Lake Chad Basin region. Weak governance structures, corruption and ineffective law enforcement worsen grievances and undermine efforts to address the root causes of conflict. The International Crisis Group highlights the importance of addressing governance failures and promoting inclusive governance reforms to build trust, foster social cohesion, and prevent further violence in the region.

Addressing climate change, extreme weather events and conflict

Tackling the impacts of climate change in the Lake Chad Basin demands coordinated action to enhance climate resilience, the sustainable management of resources, and the implementation of effective adaptation strategies. The Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC) is crucial in fostering regional cooperation and transboundary water management, aiming to mitigate climate change effects and promote sustainable development. Nonetheless, it is vital to address the root causes of climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and advancing renewable energy to protect the livelihoods and wellbeing of communities in the region.

Reducing communities’ vulnerability to natural disasters in the Lake Chad Basin involves comprehensive risk reduction and resilience-building measures. These include early-warning systems, disaster preparedness training, and community-driven adaptation projects, which can lessen the impact of natural disasters and strengthen community resilience. Moreover, sustainable land management, reforestation and effective water resource management are key to combating desertification and land degradation, fostering environmental sustainability, and reducing disaster vulnerability.

Addressing conflict dynamics in the Lake Chad Basin requires a holistic approach that tackles the underlying causes of conflict, promotes inclusive governance, and bolsters community resilience. Efforts to encourage dialogue, reconciliation and conflict resolution at various levels are critical for achieving regional peace and stability. Addressing root issues such as poverty, marginalisation and limited access to education and economic opportunities is essential to resolving the grievances that fuel conflict in the Lake Chad Basin.

Resilience strategies

Resilience strategies in the Lake Chad Basin region play a crucial role in mitigating the impacts of climate change, natural disasters and conflict on local communities. These strategies encompass a range of initiatives aimed at enhancing the adaptive capacity, livelihoods and wellbeing of vulnerable populations.

One key resilience strategy is the promotion of community-based adaptation initiatives that empower local communities to cope with and adapt to environmental stressors and conflict-related challenges. For example, organisations such as the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) work with communities in the Lake Chad Basin to implement projects focused on sustainable agriculture, water management, and disaster risk reduction. These initiatives involve capacity-building, knowledge sharing and the development of local infrastructure to enhance resilience and promote self-reliance among affected communities.

Additionally, investments in education, skills training and livelihood diversification are essential components of resilience-building efforts in the Lake Chad Basin region. By equipping individuals and communities with the knowledge and resources needed to adapt to changing environmental and socioeconomic conditions, these initiatives help reduce vulnerability and enhance the resilience of communities to shocks and stresses. For instance, the LCBC implements projects aimed at improving access to education, vocational training, and income-generating activities for youth and women in the region, empowering them to build more resilient livelihoods.

Furthermore, resilience strategies in the Lake Chad Basin emphasise the importance of inclusive governance structures, participatory decision-making processes, and community-driven approaches to resilience-building. Initiatives that promote dialogue, cooperation and social cohesion among different ethnic and religious groups contribute to building trust, fostering resilience, and preventing conflicts over scarce resources. For example, the Lake Chad Basin Governors’ Forum brings together political leaders from the region to discuss shared challenges, coordinate response efforts, and promote peacebuilding initiatives aimed at addressing the root causes of conflict and displacement.

By empowering communities, building social capital, and promoting sustainable development practices, these strategies contribute to building resilience to climate change, natural disasters and conflict, and fostering peace and stability in the region.

Stakeholder engagement

Stakeholder engagement is a critical aspect of addressing the complex challenges posed by the intersection of climate change, natural disasters and conflict in the Lake Chad Basin region. Effective engagement with diverse stakeholders, including governments, local communities, non-governmental organisations (NGOs), and international actors, is essential for fostering collaboration, building consensus, and implementing sustainable solutions.

One example of stakeholder engagement is the aforementioned LCBC, an intergovernmental organisation established by the countries bordering Lake Chad to address common challenges related to water resource management, environmental conservation, and sustainable development. The LCBC provides a platform for regional cooperation, knowledge-sharing, and joint decision-making among member states, facilitating dialogue and collaboration on issues such as climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction, and conflict prevention.

Moreover, engaging with local communities is crucial for understanding their needs, priorities and perspectives, and empowering them to participate in decision-making processes. Community-based organisations and civil society groups play a vital role in mobilising communities, advocating for their rights, and implementing grassroots initiatives to address climate change impacts and build resilience. For instance, organisations like the Youth Network for the Lake Chad Region work with young people in the region to promote environmental stewardship, peacebuilding, and sustainable livelihoods through education, advocacy, and community projects.

Furthermore, engaging with international partners and donors is essential for mobilising resources, expertise and technical assistance to support resilience-building efforts in the Lake Chad Basin region. Multilateral organisations and UN agencies, such as the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the World Bank, collaborate with governments and local stakeholders to implement climate resilience projects, strengthen institutional capacities, and promote sustainable development initiatives. For example, the UNDP’s Lake Chad Basin resilience initiative focuses on building resilience to climate change and conflict by supporting livelihood diversification, natural resource management, and peacebuilding activities in the region.

Stakeholder engagement is vital for promoting inclusive, participatory and context-specific approaches to addressing the complex challenges facing the Lake Chad Basin region. By fostering collaboration among governments, communities and international partners, stakeholders can collectively work towards building resilience, promoting peace and ensuring sustainable development in the region.

Recommendations

Policy recommendations are crucial for addressing the complex challenges facing the Lake Chad Basin region, including climate change, natural disasters and conflict. These recommendations should be comprehensive, context-specific, and informed by evidence-based research and stakeholder consultations.

Firstly, addressing the root causes of conflict and instability in the region requires a holistic approach that prioritises conflict prevention, peacebuilding, and inclusive governance. Policymakers and humanitarians should invest in initiatives aimed at promoting dialogue, reconciliation and trust-building among different ethnic and religious groups, addressing grievances, and strengthening social cohesion. For example, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) supports peacebuilding initiatives in the Lake Chad Basin region, including community dialogues, conflict- resolution training, and support for local peace committees, to promote sustainable peace and stability.

Secondly, enhancing resilience to climate change and natural disasters requires integrated adaptation strategies that address both short-term humanitarian needs and long-term development challenges. Policymakers should prioritise investments in climate-resilient infrastructure, water resource management, and sustainable agriculture practices to reduce vulnerability and enhance adaptive capacity. For instance, the World Bank supports projects in the Lake Chad Basin aimed at improving water governance, enhancing agricultural productivity, and strengthening disaster risk management to promote resilience and sustainable development.

Additionally, promoting transboundary cooperation and regional integration is essential for addressing shared challenges and promoting peace and stability in the Lake Chad Basin region. Policymakers should prioritise initiatives that facilitate dialogue, cooperation and joint action among riparian countries to manage shared resources, mitigate conflict risks and promote sustainable development. The LCBC plays a crucial role in facilitating regional cooperation and implementing joint projects aimed at addressing common challenges such as water scarcity, environmental degradation and insecurity.

In conclusion, policy recommendations for the Lake Chad Basin region should prioritise conflict prevention, peacebuilding, climate resilience and regional cooperation to address the interconnected challenges of climate change, natural disasters and conflict. By adopting a holistic approach that integrates these priorities and engages with local communities and stakeholders, policymakers can contribute to building peace, resilience and sustainable development in the region.

Abraham Ename Minko is a senior researcher and policy analyst in peace, security and conflict resolution.