The climate, displacement and conflict nexus: a snippet on its impacts on livelihoods in East Africa

The complex interactions between climate change, displacement and conflict are further exacerbated by the violation of and infringement upon access to basic human rights and needs. Whereas other socioeconomic and geopolitical contributors to such infringements exist, climate change aggravates other underlying causes through increased natural disaster occurrence, food and water scarcity, and livelihood disruption. The Monitor reported that 8 out of 10 households were food insecure, and about 900 people have died from hunger associated with drought in northeastern Uganda’s Karamoja region. This has exacerbated vulnerabilities amongst marginalised communities, who must constantly adapt to ever-changing life experiences caused by either overlapping or discrete climate change, displacement and conflict-related issues. Such an uncertain and challenging way of life calls for a collective and global discourse on climate change and how respecting human rights can contribute to a more comprehensive and compassionate approach to protecting environmental crisis victims’ rights. This article examines the nuanced relationship between climate change, displacement and conflict, focusing on Uganda and Kenya. The responsibilities of various stakeholders will be identified in preventing and mitigating environmental disasters, minimising damages, and assisting victims.

The East African context

Most of the impacts of climate change have been faced by the Global South, comprising people experiencing high poverty levels due to natural disasters such as droughts, floods and cyclones. These are all linked to anthropogenic climate change through inconsiderate and unsustainable practices like excessive consumption and production. With the East and Horn of Africa undergoing a sixth consecutive drought, forced migration and displacement have increased leaving millions displaced, especially among pastoralist tribes. Over one million people have been displaced by drought conditions, thought to be the worst in at least 40 years. Due to climate change effects, 86 million people are projected to be displaced within their own countries in Africa by 2050. Amid all this, the least-affected by climate change are the ‘developed’ countries, which double as significant contributors to pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, with about 79% of historical carbon emissions.

The climate–conflict nexus is reflected in increased migrations in search of better land for settlement, water, food and animal pasture, especially among pastoralist tribes in Uganda and Kenya. As a result, climate victims are exposed to threats to their lives and property due to violent attacks and exchanges between the displaced and host communities. According to a 2022 report, migration and displacement in the Amudat district in Uganda are perceived as a climate change adaptation strategy, primarily in response to overcoming drought hardships. Karamoja is said to have high poverty levels, and over 62% of the land is marked for exploration and mining by both the government and the private sector. The remaining land is insufficient for pastoral activity, triggering land grabbing and, thus, potential conflict.

Therefore, climate change isn’t the sole contributor to conflict due to many other factors embedded within distinctive local contexts. For example, Karamoja is known for cattle raiding, an aggressive tactic to obtain more cattle for livelihoods, but also because cattle represent social value. However, the current climate change-related impacts have widened resource scarcity through famine and the death of livestock. Such disasters have increased the pressure on livelihoods and food security, creating the potential for conflict. As a result, some Karamojongs have extended attacks to farming communities in western and eastern Uganda, in the quest for not only water and pasture but also cultivators’ herds, leading to the death of people and engendering mistrust.

The rainy season in northern Kenya is currently erratic and unpredictable, increasing food insecurity due to crops experiencing drought stress, a relatively new challenge that communities are forced to adapt to. For pastoralists like the Turkanas, who heavily depend on livestock that need rain-fed pastures and water, they have resorted to migration as a way of widening their territories to both unused lands and neighbouring communities, creating resource competition with host communities. Within Samburu, Marsabit and Turkana counties, conflicts have intensified as they attack each other and other farming communities to gain control over land for settlement, agriculture, water and pasture during drought conditions. There have been increased mortality rates, injuries, and loss of property and livestock. Kenyan herders are estimated to have lost at least 2.5 million cattle between 2020–2022, lowering their incomes and increasing the motivation to move in search of better pastures and land for grazing. These occurrences also worsen the psychological welfare of communities through grief, trauma and prolonged insecurity. Although such vulnerable communities endure these adversities, exposure to such direct and indirect risks reduces their adaptability to climate change. It also increases poverty and suffering levels, deepening the complexities within the climate, displacement and conflict nexus.

As observed, climate change worsens livelihood situations by exacerbating the resource scarcity of marginalised communities, which encourages them to migrate in search of other survival means. Within the process, mobility and settlement patterns are altered, causing displacement due to pressure on resources, which increases the risks of conflict through theft and land grabbing, among other things. The violence or conflict fundamentally causes further displacement directly through the insecurity it creates in people’s lives and indirectly through the uncertainties created around social networks and economic opportunities. However, circumstances differ across contexts; thus, it is equally vital to understand the specific circumstances under which climate relates to displacement and conflict to create successful mitigation measures.

Exploring deeper, at the household level, there are links between climate change and violence. With about 81% of the Ugandan population dependent on rainfed agriculture, it is no surprise that the sector contributes 40% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). Seasonal changes, with prolonged droughts and floods in many places in Uganda, therefore, bring alterations in agricultural patterns. For example, there was a long dry season between May and July in 2022, which is usually the wet season, bringing about crop failures. This led to a reduced food supply, resulting in high food prices, with most prices doubling. Families that depended on subsistence farming could hardly afford to purchase food, exposing them to malnutrition and diseases. For heads of families, typically fathers, there was added insecurity – traditionally, the role of men is to provide for the family, and the inability to meet those needs sometimes creates conflicts. In Kenya, dwindling water sources means women must travel long distances to collect water for domestic work. Such journeys increase their exposure to sexual assault while travelling, and intimate partner violence at home, if they refuse to engage in sexual intercourse following the exhausting journey.

Call to action

There have been efforts to mainstream human mobility within national and regional climate change frameworks, especially within the Kampala Declaration on Migration, Environment and Climate Change. This is designed to be a resilient, just and sustainable initiative to mitigate conflicts that arise from climate-induced displacement. Such interventions, however, come with ill-conceived land use and institutional changes; they can effect a reduction in self-reliance amongst citizens as they lose their land and environmental resources and have to resort to fragmentation and other environmentally unsustainable practices. Despite these adaptation measures, their implementation also remains challenging as smallholder groups and families cannot adopt them due to skills and knowledge gaps; constantly changing prices of crops and adaptation mechanisms like insurance and irrigation systems; and finally, general poverty and a lack of access to financial support.

Ultimately, more holistic approaches need to be adopted to protect the dignity and improve the welfare standard of those affected by climate change through the following:

1. As governments respond to climate adaptation through land-use systems, a bottom-up approach should be used to enable community involvement so that their needs are prioritised from the onset. When instead they are excluded, it threatens internal mobility and their access to previously owned and utilised resources like land, water and pasture, especially for pastoral groups. The realisation of climate-induced displacements should, therefore, call for reflections and agency especially for people in positions of influence. They should look into the possible effects of violence and its ability to alter the livelihood and safety of the people at risk as a motivation for crafting sustainable solutions.
2. Governments and humanitarian organisations should offer technical and risk-mitigation support services like drought-resistant crops, financial access through loans and emergency relief. These actions can be backed up by evidence-based research to disseminate relevant information on traditional and modern adaptation measures to guide current and future climate resilience programmes. This will reduce the pressure that exacerbates conflicts within families and migrating communities.
3. Advocacy programmes that encourage more compassion towards those affected by climate change should be adopted within climate change sensitisation programmes. This will reduce the likelihood of hatred and bias attached to climate-induced displaced people amongst host communities, which spawn conflicts.
4. Countries should prioritise climate financing to vulnerable communities, especially those countries with a greater contribution towards climate change. This will ensure timely response and design of sustainable solutions for affected communities through digital, green and circular-economy initiatives that are environmentally friendly. A reliable investment will also enable people to engage in sustainable and climate-friendly ventures to meet their daily needs. The absence of reliable funding mechanisms will leave cash-strapped countries unable to transition to best practices that bring renewal to those affected by climate change.
5. There is a need for continuous audits of major carbon-emission contributors’ efforts in securing funds for global climate financing. This will ensure that major carbon emitters shoulder their responsibility in securing and contributing funding and prevent them from hiding behind other stakeholders’ contributions. It will also diversify sources of funds from governments, the private sector and philanthropists supporting climate adaptation, protection and resilience programmes.
6. Specific contributions made by various stakeholders should openly be shared in reports as mandated by the Paris Agreement. This would shed light on those major carbon emitters who take advantage of the support of other stakeholders’ contributions. Global carbon emission standards, procedures and principles should be set with better implementation policies to ensure adherence. This will create momentum for corporate social responsibility, especially climate-friendly approaches, in turn leading to harmonious but productive competition to attain the set standards.

As observed, there is a disparity in vulnerability amongst countries regarding readiness and adaptation to climate change. Climate change remains a direct trigger for displacement and conflict within vulnerable areas, as seen in some parts of Kenya and Uganda, which not only calls for an even burden sharing of consequences but also for those that pollute the most to take responsibility and care for the marginalised. For the above suggestions to be successful, the ethical and moral standards and call for humanity, respect and dignity for every human being should remain a priority. The existence of fixed guidelines does not overrule or discourage the presence of voluntary protection and support opportunities for those affected by climate change. From an individual level, we all have a moral obligation to rise against climate change-induced injustices towards vulnerable communities.

Aloysious Tumusiime is the International Administrator Volunteer with Christian Aid.