The effectiveness of anticipatory humanitarian action for cyclone response in Bangladesh

Bangladesh, a country located in a deltaic plain with large areas of land close to sea level and with a high population density, has always been vulnerable to natural hazards. In particular, the country’s flat topography, coastal position and the large number of rivers and huge monsoon water catchment areas
make it susceptible to cyclones, storm surges and flooding. The risk of natural hazards is increasing with climate change, which increases the possibility of flooding through factors such as sea-level rise and increased rainfall, and the potential damage from tropical cyclones as a result of increased sea surface temperatures. Other climate change impacts include temperature extremes, drought, riverbank erosion, salinisation and landslides, leading to food and water scarcity, biodiversity loss, and migration. These challenges disproportionately affect the poorest and most marginalised, impacting economic prosperity and quality of life.

Cyclones and storm surges

Bangladesh’s low-lying coastal regions face frequent tropical cyclones, particularly in April–May and October–November. With much of its land barely above sea level, these areas are highly vulnerable to cyclone-induced storm surges. Rising sea levels and increased water temperatures intensify cyclones, exacerbating their impact. Historically, cyclones have caused very significant loss of life. Recent events like Cyclone Amphan in 2020 have caused widespread damage, affecting millions and resulting in substantial infrastructure and agricultural losses. Climate change appears to be increasing the frequency of cyclonic hazards, with four consecutive cyclones hitting Bangladesh in 2022–2023.

At the same time, Bangladesh has a history of taking proactive measures to reduce the impact of cyclones, through a range of disaster risk reduction and preparedness strategies, including building defensive dikes, establishing cyclone shelters and early warning systems, and supporting community- based preparedness activities. These activities have greatly reduced the death toll associated with cyclones. While the Bhola Cyclone claimed upwards of 300,000 lives in 1970, by 2020, during Cyclone Amphan, 2.4 million people evacuated to 12,078 cyclone shelters, and only 26 people died.

Anticipatory action

The work of the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society (BDRCS) and its partners in the field of anticipatory action (AA) follows this tradition of acting in advance of natural hazards. The BDRCS has been working on the AA approach since 2015. It is an approach that combines: forecasting, to give early warning of a hazard; a predetermined ‘trigger’, based on this forecast – a threshold which, when reached, signals that action needs to be taken; a set of predetermined actions that will be taken when the trigger is reached; and pre-agreed financing that can be released as soon as the trigger is reached, so that action can be taken immediately. These four elements are combined in an Early Action Protocol (EAP).

In developing the EAP, the BDRCS initially concentrated on 14 districts of Bangladesh that were particularly vulnerable to cyclones. The choice of these 14 districts was based on an analysis of meteorological data, and data about damage caused in different districts by previous cyclones. In the terminology of AA, the assessment was impact based – it did not look just at whether a district was at risk of being hit by a cyclone, but also (to take into account differences in population and in the resilience of infrastructure from one district to another) at the degree of damage that a cyclone was likely to cause if it did occur. This understanding of the likely impact of a cyclone also allowed the BDRCS to develop triggers that were based not just on wind speed and direction, but on an understanding of what particular wind conditions were likely to do in different areas. It also helped identify the early actions that would be most effective in saving lives and livelihoods.

The early action protocol was developed over a period of two years, in a process that included a number of tests and simulations. These simulations were important in identifying areas that needed to be strengthened in order for the EAP to work successfully.

EAP activation for Cyclone Amphan

The genesis of Cyclone Amphan was officially recognised on 15 May 2020 by the Bangladeshi Meteorological Department, which issued initial warnings of the potential threat. At this point, the BDRCS put staff in districts on standby, to be ready for an activation of the EAP. On 18 May, as the meteorological indicators pointed to the cyclone impacting the communities covered by the plan, the Anticipatory Action Activation Committee convened and considered the meteorological and other data, determined that the threshold of danger had been reached, and triggered decentralised funds and early evacuation measures to prepare vulnerable coastal communities for the imminent impact. At the same time, government and other partners were carrying out their own early action plans.

The early release of the funds before the cyclone made landfall on 20 May allowed the distribution of essential supplies to 36,500 individuals in 192 shelters, according to BDRCS data. Early warnings ensured that both people and the livestock essential for their livelihoods (around 4,400 animals) evacuated to the safety of the shelters.

A subsequent evaluation of the response suggested that people in shelters supported by BDRCS actions were more likely to have received water and sanitation supplies than people who did not receive this support, experienced fewer problems at their cyclone shelters, and reported better health status immediately after the cyclone. It was not clear, however, that there was any strong effect on asset preservation or longer-term resilience (although this was not the aim of the intervention).

Lessons learned

The process of developing the EAP, and particularly the simulation activities that were part of this development, were important for lesson learning. Fittingly, these lessons were anticipatory – they were identified before the EAP was used – and helped strengthen the EAP in advance. As such, the first lesson is the importance of testing AA processes through simulations and other exercises.

Key lessons that emerged related to ensuring that BDRCS staff on the ground had the skills required to implement the EAP, and the material resources (such as flashlights) to do so. The simulations identified gaps in both areas, which were filled by capacity-building and procurement.

Just as importantly, the simulations identified the need for decentralised funding to be available at the district level, as transferring funds from the capital would have taken too long and would have compromised the AA process.

Finally, the simulations showed the importance of an ongoing process of monitoring the status of shelters, to ensure that, when they were needed, they could be accessed and were in a good state of repair.

Md. Shahjahan is an Assistant Director and Coordinator, Anticipatory Action, in the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society.