A journey of anticipatory action – early response to heatwaves in Pakistan

Pakistan’s context combines a multitude of natural and human-induced hazards with a high level of vulnerability. To this situation is added the threat of climate change. Increasing incidents of all forms of flooding, prevailing water scarcity, persistent drought-like conditions and frequent heatwaves are pointing towards a future scenario with a significant increase in severity and frequency of hydrometeorological hazards. While the threat posed by climate change has been growing for some time, widespread flooding in 2022 – which broke from the previous pattern of flooding in Pakistan – showed how quickly the situation is changing, and how important it is to prepare for new and unexpected hazards.

Much of this preparation will require whole-of-society measures to build resilience to climate hazards. But these measures take time to implement, and even when implemented, they will not always work in all places and circumstances. So, in addition to resilience-building, humanitarian organisations working in Pakistan are required to walk the extra mile by developing anticipatory actions, strengthened preparedness and early response to predictable crises. Such activities allow for a response to be made before a disaster occurs, when there is still time to save lives and livelihoods.

Humanitarian non-governmental organisations (NGOs) in Pakistan – under the umbrella of the READY Pakistan (or Pakistan Hub) initiative in the START Network supported by the German Federal Foreign Office through Welthungerhilfe, and through collaboration with national and local governments – have begun to develop anticipatory action systems for a variety of hazards, including flooding, heatwaves and droughts. This article outlines the first steps in developing a system for early response to heatwaves.

A brief overview of the anticipatory action programme for heatwaves in Pakistan

While there is no escaping from natural hazards, proactive and innovative humanitarian response systems can reduce the intensity of the impacts they will have on vulnerable populations. One way of doing this is to act immediately before a disaster, in a proactive fashion, rather than waiting to respond after the disaster strikes. The number of lives, livelihoods and public services that can be protected in this way will become increasingly important as climate change makes hazards more frequent.

The anticipatory action approach ensures actions are taken to prevent or mitigate potential disaster impacts before a shock occurs or before acute impacts are felt. These actions might include evacuation of people and livestock in advance of a flood, or preparation of healthcare systems to respond to increased need in a heatwave. The approach is composed of four pillars: hazard forecasting (of a flood, heatwave or drought); preparedness planning, which outlines what actions will be taken when the hazard is forecast; flexible, pre-agreed financing to pay for the actions; and strong coordination and governance, to ensure that the various ‘moving parts’ all work together.

The anticipatory action programme in Pakistan started as a pilot in early 2019 by Welthungerhilfe Pakistan, as the host organisation of READY Pakistan, and was funded by the START Network. The first activation of the heatwave element of the programme occurred in 2022 and was continued by Concern in 2023–2024.

One of the most significant pillars of the anticipatory action approach is the localised hazard prediction model. Hazard prediction models based on historical and live analysis, combined with weather forecasts, can predict heatwaves, droughts and floods with an accuracy of 70–80%. When a hazard is predicted, anticipatory actions are ‘triggered’ and funding is released. Development of the heatwave forecasting model has gone through several stages, and this process of learning and development is still ongoing.

The current model is based on a combination of historical weather data (on temperatures and humidity) and weather forecasts. Actions are ‘triggered’ when the weather forecast suggests that temperatures in a given location will be 3ºC higher than average for that time of year for a period of three consecutive days. Heatwaves can be predicted up to 10 days in advance, giving a good lead time for activities to be launched.

The specific activities that are triggered by the forecast are the distribution of heatwave kits, containing items such as water bottles and umbrellas to provide shade; dissemination of information, education and communication (IEC) materials; and establishment of temporary cooling places where people can gather.

Typically, IEC materials give information about how to avoid and treat heat exhaustion, as well as contact details for hospitals and the locations of cooling places. Messages are distributed in schools and hospitals, pasted on walls and distributed by radio and social media. Working closely with telecommunications companies has also enabled the messages to be sent as ringtones, and to be read out as automated messages while callers are waiting.

Cooling places are either government buildings or temporary shelters that are set up for the duration of the heatwave. Here, people can find shade and clean drinking water. Community health workers are also present to diagnose and respond to heat-related health conditions and to provide in-person guidance on keeping safe in a heatwave. The cooling places also have ambulances that can transport patients to hospital, if needed.

In 2022, this approach was employed in Sibi, in Balochistan province, where READY Pakistan made an anticipatory action grant of about £48,000 (or $62,777) to help the local community during the hot season. In 2023 and 2024, the approach was expanded with a combination of national and international NGOs providing anticipatory assistance in 10 districts.

What we have learnt so far

The programme has been a process of learning, and we are still trying to improve as we move forward. Some of the key lessons to date are:

1. The importance of ensuring that triggers reflect local conditions. In its first year, the programme relied on triggers that had been developed outside Pakistan. Despite many people suggesting that we should take action, we did not because the trigger temperatures were not met. When we reviewed this, we realised that the trigger was based on temperatures alone, rather than on a combination of temperature and humidity. In humid environments – like Pakistan during the monsoon season – high levels of humidity make it harder for the body to cool down, and so heat exhaustion and heat stroke can occur at lower temperatures. We revised the trigger so that, during the monsoon months, it takes humidity into account. We are also in the process of revising the triggers to take into account differences between urban and rural areas, and are fine-tuning the triggers by comparing historical levels of heat and humidity with information on medical conditions recorded at health facilities. This will show the levels of heat and humidity that are dangerous in the context of Pakistan.
2. The need to provide funding to help small organisations set up the system. The aim of the system in Pakistan is that it is implemented by local organisations that are close to their communities, understand the context, and can respond swiftly. However, these organisations have limited funds and need money to prepare themselves to act when the weather forecast triggers a response. This year, we have begun to make small grants to organisations in risk areas that have been selected by the National Steering Committee of READY Pakistan to implement anticipatory action projects, to enable them to prepare.
3. The importance of a collaborative approach. The anticipatory action approach is increasingly being adopted by the national government and by international organisations active in Pakistan. These different entities must harmonise their systems by, for example, agreeing on the thresholds/ triggers to be used. At the local level, coordination is extremely important. A small organisation cannot do everything by itself, but by working with local government, healthcare providers, mobile phone companies, schools and other stakeholders, it can build a whole-of-system approach.
4. Act, learn, act better! This climate crisis is a threat that we haven’t encountered before, and we are learning as we go. We believe that it is important to make space to critically consider what is working and what isn’t, to be open about what needs to be improved, and to change it. So, we review our anticipatory action work annually, to plan for the coming year and to identify changes that need to be made.

Muhammad Amad is Executive Director of IDEA NGO, member of the READY Pakistan steering committee, trustee of the START Network, and localisation and anticipatory action advocate.

Haris Bin Riaz is Project Coordinator at Welthungerhilfe, overseeing the implementation, development, and training of local partners in the harmonised anticipatory action approach in Pakistan.