Protection of civilians in armed conflict at sea: developing a humanitarian maritime coordination system

During armed conflict, civilians face unimaginable suffering – violence, the loss of loved ones, the destruction of their homes, and, in many cases, death. Whether the conflict is international or non-international in character, the result is often the same: people are forced to flee their homes to escape the violence. This large-scale displacement, either within their own country or across borders, creates serious risks to their safety and wellbeing.

In 1999, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) recognised the urgent need to protect civilians during armed conflicts and added this issue to its agenda. Over the past 25 years, the UN and humanitarian organisations have made significant progress in finding ways to prevent and mitigate harm to civilians. However, most of these efforts have focused on conflicts on land, particularly in urban areas. When we think about protecting civilians, we often picture the devastation of cities and towns caught in the crossfire. But what about the sea?

Since the Second World War, armed conflicts at sea, or conflicts having maritime implications, have been rare. Because of this, the maritime domain has been largely overlooked for decades. As a result, the systems in place to protect civilians at sea are underdeveloped – almost non-existent. This is a problem we can no longer ignore. If we don’t start paying attention to the risks civilians face at sea, hundreds of thousands of lives could be in danger in the near future. It’s time to give the maritime domain the attention it deserves.

There are currently several maritime flashpoints involving Great Powers globally. In particular, escalating tensions in the Asia-Pacific region are marked by frequent ‘show of force’ actions. It would take a small miscalculation to ignite a spark capable of provoking the largest armed conflict at sea since the Second World War. While much attention is given to the economic and geopolitical implications of such a conflict, the humanitarian impact remains largely overlooked.

For instance, a hypothetical conflict between China and Taiwan could prompt large-scale maritime forced displacement of Taiwanese civilians and more than 730,000 foreign workers seeking safety by sea. There is no question that such a scenario would require robust coordination at sea, yet no such mechanism currently exists. As someone who has spent the past decade coordinating humanitarian mass rescue operations at sea within refugee crises, I fear the humanitarian community will not be prepared to meet the challenge when the time comes. And yes, it is a matter of when, not if. For this reason, I cannot stress enough the need for the international community to develop policies towards the establishment of a dedicated maritime coordination mechanism aimed to effectively protect civilians. Without one, the response could become chaotic, delaying or even preventing timely and effective assistance, and putting humanitarian maritime organisations and personnel at further risk.

As mentioned, this scarcity of humanitarian crises with maritime implications limits the analysis of state practices related to maritime response during such conflicts. Consequently, there is a significant gap in knowledge regarding the application of legal frameworks regulating humanitarian assistance – primarily international humanitarian law – during armed conflict at sea. This gap affects civil, military and humanitarian personnel, potentially hindering their ability to provide aid effectively.

Analysing current humanitarian coordination mechanisms

Unlike the well-organised land-based Humanitarian Global Cluster System developed by the United Nations (UN) and the broader humanitarian community, there is limited expertise in humanitarian maritime response within the non-profit sector. The absence of a dedicated maritime cluster and maritime emergency response unit within the UN system is compelling evidence. In the event of armed conflict, the UN and many organisations may find themselves unprepared, lacking the policies, procedures and capabilities required to operate in such a complex environment.

A clear example of the challenges and gaps in providing effective humanitarian aid and protection at sea emerged at the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Over 2,000 seafarers found themselves trapped aboard their ships for months, stuck in and around Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. While the UN and other organisations made commendable efforts to provide assistance, the response highlighted serious shortcomings. Much of the assistance relied on ad hoc measures, which slowed down evacuation efforts and delayed the creation of safe maritime corridors. This was due to a lack of maritime-focused policy frameworks, inadequate integration of maritime issues in humanitarian response planning, and the absence of unified leadership with clear roles and responsibilities. This situation underscored the urgent need for a more organised and reliable system to protect and assist civilians and seafarers in maritime crises.

In light of this, the definition and establishment of a humanitarian maritime coordination mechanism play a crucial role in saving lives and upholding international obligations when operated by neutral, impartial and independent humanitarian organisations. It is worth mentioning that humanitarian maritime organisations may operate at a lower risk – with consent from parties to the conflict and agreements in place – than navies and coast guards, which may be misidentified or be regarded as conducting intelligence-gathering, putting at further risk those they intend to assist. A maritime-focused humanitarian system ensures the protection of civilians by providing timely assistance and safe disembarkation at neutral ports – known as places of safety in maritime search and rescue (SAR) – where their basic human needs can be met, protection services provided and transportation to their final destination arranged.

Where do we start? Let’s assume for a moment that the UN has successfully developed a dedicated policy framework towards the creation of a maritime coordination mechanism, which may assist parties to the conflict in fulfilling their obligation to protect civilians or assume coordination when states fail or are prevented from doing so. The first step is to construct the human environment on land and at sea. The human environment encompasses information about the presence of civilians and humanitarian personnel, cultural property, civilian infrastructure, essential services and resources that civilians depend on for survival, and livelihoods. Let me use a hypothetical China–Taiwan conflict, a case scenario I have researched extensively, to walk you through the process.

Case scenario: China–Taiwan conflict

Constructing the human environment on land

Picture Taiwan, located just 100 nautical miles away from China across the Taiwan Strait. The images below provide information about population density, terrain and road network that are essential to understanding internal displacement. Assuming a cross-Strait attack, the civilian population would be expected to flee hostilities by road towards the south, north and east. Taiwan’s terrain features a mountain chain running from north to south, which has had an impact on its road network, with good access to the north and south but only two secondary roads crossing to the East, suggesting displaced civilians might arrive to those locations at a different frequency and time.

In ongoing research, I identified 34 different port locations as points of departure from where maritime large-scale displacement could originate. We must keep in mind that civilians would not have the possibility to cross borders to a neighbouring country, forcing them to seek safety by sea in case of need. These port locations include commercial ports and harbours predominantly in the north and southwest, and marinas in the south and east. Understanding the type of location increases operational and tactical effectiveness by enhancing resource allocation at sea, as the types of boats and vessels available differ. Mid-to-large size vessels might be available at commercial ports and harbours (northern and southwestern locations) – including commercial, fishing and passenger vessels – whereas small recreational boats are found in marinas (southern and eastern locations). This provides a valuable insight: small boats can carry fewer civilians which increases the number of boats in distress, requiring more SAR assets to complete multiple rescues, whereas larger vessels can carry larger numbers of civilians, reducing the number of distress cases and easing resource allocation. However, rescue operations become more difficult tactically as large vessels tend to be more overcrowded and more unstable than smaller boats, which require an efficient resource allocation and the dispatch of larger SAR assets with more advanced rescue equipment. By enhancing resource allocation at sea, the protection of civilians at the field level increases.

Constructing the human environment at sea

Now picture dozens of boats in distress at sea carrying thousands of civilians while active hostilities are taking place in the area or nearby. Before defining the maritime domain, we must understand that, unlike onshore, humanitarian operations at sea are carried out in dynamic, highly active and non-static settings with multiple security and safety concerns ranging from active hostilities to severe weather and sea conditions, increasing the risk to civilians exponentially.
For humanitarian maritime organisations to conduct timely and effective rescue operations and evacuations in a safe manner, three things must be arranged. First, parties to the conflict must grant consent and make agreements on safe passage. Second, humanitarian maritime corridors must be established, to access operational areas at sea or ports in Taiwan for safe evacuations and pre-validated neutral ports, with adequate facilities for safe disembarkations across the region. Third, humanitarian maritime zones (neutral zones) must be established, to conduct rescue operations safely. These three requirements may only be achieved through high-level humanitarian diplomacy and advocacy supported by the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross; a dedicated humanitarian maritime rescue coordination centre supported by the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) to ensure robust coordination; and a maritime-focused humanitarian civil–military coordination mechanism to enhance humanitarian notification and deconfliction measures by military actors.

Enhancing maritime situational awareness

Situational awareness is crucial for humanitarian coordination and deconfliction by military actors. There are several sources of information that help construct the civilian environment on land and at sea. These include but are not limited to:

• Humanitarian notification systems to inform military actors: non-static locations (movements of humanitarian SAR vessels) and no-strike lists that include static locations such as neutralised ports for evacuations and pre-validated ports for safe disembarkations.
• Satellite imagery: tracking internal displacement towards potential points of departure (port locations) and maritime forced displacement.
• Very high frequency (VHF) communications: distress alerts sent by civilians aboard vessels and boats in distress at sea.
• Central Emergency Operations Centres: centres receiving and managing emergency calls.
• Maps and online resources (port locations).
• Naval and military aerial assets: main actors at sea who may have valuable information.

Benefits of operationalising the human environment

On the one hand, humanitarian maritime organisations and coordination centres can improve their maritime situational awareness and operational planning – resource allocation and assignment of more suitable places of safety based on situational reports that include security and navigational safety analyses. Furthermore, this would provide valuable information to military actors through humanitarian notification systems, which may contribute to the swift designation – by agreement among parties to the conflict – of humanitarian corridors and humanitarian zones at sea, facilitating the provision of life-saving rescue operations in a safer and more secure environment.

On the other hand, military commands can enhance their Common Operational Picture – beyond assessments of opposing forces (threat) and friendly forces – by improving their maritime situational awareness and better understanding the operational environment at sea. By leveraging comprehensive analyses of the civilian environment, military forces can improve operational planning and deconfliction, and ultimately reduce the risk of misidentification during the targeting process.

Conclusion

As the threat of armed conflict at sea grows, the international community must come together to strengthen its ability to respond to humanitarian crises in these challenging environments. This effort should focus on creating clear, dedicated, consistent and coherent policies and better coordination mechanisms to ensure the protection of civilians at sea. Ultimately, it all comes down to being prepared. The more we plan and prepare, the more effectively we can protect those in need. There’s no quick fix or magic solution – progress may take time, but every journey begins with a single step. By taking that step now, we can start building a system that could save many lives.

Albert Mayordomo is a researcher in protection of civilians at sea and humanitarian maritime response in armed conflict.